Modest pool permit increase a result of weather and softening economy

Not only did spring start late, but the transition from winter to spring never really occurred as summer-like weather arrived in May and only got warmer through to August. How did this factor on the trends for the number of pool installations in 2018? Well, thanks to a small increase in permit registrations in December 2017, it interrupted what would have been 13 consecutive months—between June 2017 and June 2018—in which pool permits decreased year-over-year.

Needless to say, the ebbs and flows of pool permit registrations in 2018 essentially mimicked the warm-to-hot weather patterns experienced across the country. This is despite the fact consumer confidence had a minor recovery in March, then rose again in April and May before it started to decline again in June.

Unlike the start of the 2017 season, which benefited from the strength of the record-breaking summer the year prior, the same cannot be said for last year. As mentioned earlier, the end of the 2017 season was weak and this trend continued into the first and second quarters of 2018, which were down 23.5 per cent and six per cent, respectively. However, once summer—and the extreme heat—finally arrived, pool permits increased in the third and fourth quarters, which had gains of 20.5 per cent and seven per cent.

When breaking up last season into three categories: start of year/early spring (January to April); mid-spring/late summer (May to August); and fall/winter (September to December), pool permit registrations were only down in the first category. They increased by six per cent in the second category and 13 per cent in the third.

This is evidence the trend of winter arriving later, and lasting longer, still continues. As a result, more than 80 per cent of all pool permit registrations occurred during the last eight months of the year. Overall, Statistics Canada reported 12,224 permits were issued in 2018, representing 157 more than the year prior. Permit registrations in census metropolitan areas (CMAs), on the other hand, decreased by 0.5 per cent, representing 54 fewer permits than in 2017.

Regional activity

As pool permits were up slightly in 2018, the industry’s ebbs and flows were apparent from coast-to-coast. Population alone makes Ontario and Quebec the country’s largest regions for pool installations; however, this also makes each province more susceptible to either large decreases or increases in pool building permit registrations. Fortunately, the latter occurred in each province. Together they make up 90.9 per cent of the 2018 Canadian pool market, representing a 25.9 per cent increase year-over-year. One of the biggest reasons for this upswing is the turnaround year that occurred in Quebec. In 2017, only one of six CMAs reported positive growth whereas in 2018 only one CMA saw fewer permits. In fact, the lone CMA was Sherbrooke, which only had one less permit than in 2017. Ontario had 11 CMAs reporting increases, which was two more than the year prior.

In Atlantic Canada, pool permits were down 43 per cent over 2017, while western Canada saw permits increase by 31 per cent. (See the chart ‘Building Permits Issued for Swimming Pools in Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) 2006-2018 for details on specific municipalities).