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Modest pool permit increase a result of weather and softening economy

Quebec

Similar to winter 2015, the weather was not kind to those living in la belle province. After an abysmal 2017 season, the long, cold winter delayed project starts and likely moved the idea of a pool installation for many homeowners down on their list of priorities. In fact, in early April, much of southern Quebec was felled with freezing rain and snow—cities such as Montreal and Gaspe endured this weather for nearly 20 hours. Another storm surge in Quebec City led to the St. Lawrence River breaching its banks and causing flooding. Needless to say, pool permit registrations between January and March last year were 13.3 per cent lower—leaving many thinking about what the pool season had in store.

As it is always said, no one can predict Mother Nature. After a very short-lived spring, summer roared into the province with a vengeance, and June through July the province faced one of the longest and most intense heat waves on record. In Gatineau, for example, the humidex reached a record high of 48, while in Montreal, Urgences-sante had a 30 per cent increase in heat-related emergency calls.

That said, between April and July the province had a 79.5 per cent spike in year-over-year pool permit registrations, which was followed by another 70.6 per cent increase between August and December. In total, pool permits were up by 48 per cent over the 2017 season.

Further, the number of permits registered last year (8380) was the most in the last 10 years. In fact, every CMA in the province—except for Sherbrooke—had increases between 2017 and 2018. Montreal, the largest city in this region, was up by 0.7 per cent; however, it was Quebec City, the capital, which had the biggest year-over-year increase at 23 per cent. Trois-Rivières (12.5 per cent) and Ottawa-Gatineau (11.5 per cent) were second and third, respectively.

This was a comeback year for much of the province as many CMAs were down between 10 and 16 per cent in 2017. Further, after falling off the list of the country’s top producers of pool permits in 2017, Montreal is back in the number three position. Quebec City now holds the top position after recording its fourth consecutive year of permit increases. Overall, 3355 more pool permits were registered in the province in 2018 compared to the year prior.

Quebec represents 66.8 per cent of the total number of pool building permits issued in the country’s CMAs, which is an increase of 2.8 per cent in comparison to 2017.

Ontario

Much like Ontario’s neighbour to the East, many sought shelter from the cold due to the record freezing temperatures that kick started the long winter ahead.According to Environment and Climate Change Canada, much of southwestern Ontario, in areas such as London, Kitchener, Windsor, Guelph, Cambridge, Waterloo, Brantford, Sarnia, Stratford, Woodstock, and St. Thomas were hit by half a month’s worth of rainfall over the course of three days in April. Toronto, the province’s capital, did not get off easy either as a mix of ice pellets, freezing rain, and rain hit this region hard over the course of a 54-hour period. The weather was so severe in early April the CN Tower was closed and a Blue Jays game was even cancelled.

Although the summer saw extremely hot temperatures and high humidex levels, many metropolitan areas experienced flooding throughout different periods of the season.

Once again, the weather in this province kept builders on standby as to when the season would start. Optimism is important in this industry, especially when one is not sure if the weather is going to co-operate. That said, it was not too long ago that permit registrations between January and April were on the decline in Ontario (2013-2015), but who would have thought—economy and weather in all—pool permits during this period actually increased for the third consecutive year. In 2018, permit registrations were 4.3 per cent higher than in 2017 and 121.6 per cent higher than in 2016. This upward trend continued throughout the year as 435 more permits were registered between May and August (35 per cent increase) and another 572 between September and December (55 per cent increase).

Of 16 reporting CMAs in the province, pool permits were up in 11 and lower in five in comparison to 2017. Toronto, however, after reporting three consecutive years (2015-2017) with increased pool permit registrations had a 21.3 per cent year-over-year decrease. As a result, the city was also bumped from the top five CMAs with increased building permits (number four in 2017) to the second spot on the list of top five with decreased permits.

Could this have been weather-related? As mentioned earlier, the extreme weather that occurred in southwestern Ontario likely also affected other CMAs such as Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, as this region also experienced a decrease in pool permits. In fact, 20 fewer were registered, representing a decrease of 13.5 per cent. Other CMAs with fewer permit registrations last year included Barrie (down 20.3 per cent) and St. Catharines (down 17.5 per cent).

It was not all doom-and-gloom, however, as Windsor (number three overall in 2017) moved up one spot thanks to a 24.5 per cent increase in pool permits, representing 47 more than the year prior. Brantford was also up by 20.5 per cent as was Peterborough at 14.7 per cent.

Ontario represents 24.1 per cent of the total number of building permits issued in Canadian CMAs, representing an increase of 0.2 per cent.

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